Tuesday 27 February 2024

People who are made anxious by ambiguity and novelty wind up being political conservatives, 

Sheepy though process - if the future is different –it is kind of disgusting – if it’s disgusting it’s wrong wrong wrong ..and that’s it

https://open.spotify.com/episode/4uzO5YJ0k7HeELtjm9ZAdq?si=9f72e802e0644826

 

https://www.theguardian.com/books/2023/oct/24/determined-life-without-free-will-by-robert-sapolsky-review-the-hard-science-of-decisions

 

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Friday 5 January 2024

52 Snippets from 2023

https://snippet.finance/52-snippets-from-2023/

 

 

Oyster cards as digital money

The rise of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) sparks concerns about increased state surveillance over spending habits. While fears of government monitoring prompt debates and resistance from some quarters like Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida, analyzing London's transport payment systems, particularly the Oyster cards, sheds light on the dynamics between convenience and privacy in electronic payment systems. CBDCs, being a potential replacement for physical cash, raise the question of how much individuals prioritize privacy in their transactions.

 

Electronic payment systems inherently create transaction trails, raising concerns about state intrusion and control. The debate around CBDCs revolves around balancing the state's access to transactional data and individual privacy rights. While some argue that such fears are overstated, given existing surveillance methods like bank account monitoring and CCTV access, the fundamental question remains: do people truly prioritize privacy over convenience in their transactions? Surveys and public consultations attempt to gauge public sentiment on privacy in electronic payments, but these methods may not fully capture real-world behavior.

 

London's Transport for London (TfL) inadvertently presents a revealing case study on privacy preferences in payment systems. Different payment methods, from paper tickets to contactless cards, offer varying degrees of privacy. Unregistered Oyster cards provide near-anonymous transactions, while contactless cards hold minimal to significant user information. Despite privacy differences, data analysis reveals a clear trend favoring convenience over privacy. The usage of contactless debit and credit cards for travel has surged, while the use of pay-as-you-go Oyster cards has declined significantly.

 

This shift indicates that most individuals prioritize the convenience of direct debit or credit card payments over the additional privacy offered by unregistered Oyster cards. The trend showcases the dominance of convenience in driving payment choices. Moreover, the inconvenience of topping up Oyster cards compared to direct bank account payments plays a significant role in adoption preferences. This preference for convenience raises doubts about the potential adoption of CBDCs, as their perceived inconvenience might hinder widespread acceptance, outweighing concerns about privacy invasion. Central banks considering CBDC implementation should heed the pivotal role of convenience in shaping consumer behavior and adoption trends.

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Friday 29 September 2023

https://www.ft.com/content/651cc7a4-27e3-4026-9381-76421a0203bb

 

‘In principle, you do not really need more than two: a global equity fund and a broad bond fund in your own currency, with the relative amounts a function of your return needs, ability to withstand short-term drawdowns, and need to control long-term risk on your ultimate portfolio. This gives you very good diversification, clarity and simplicity on what you are holding, and high liquidity with minimum costs if held through passive funds, mutual or exchange traded (ETFs).’


investors often overvalue liquidity’

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Wednesday 4 January 2023

2023 outllooks

Goldman Sachs https://lnkd.in/eKzF_2K4
J.P. Morgan 
https://lnkd.in/eHb6-622
Morgan Stanley 
https://lnkd.in/e2nAMjmM
Bank of America 
https://lnkd.in/e8XFD8TW
BlackRock 
https://lnkd.in/eYxCBRGj
HSBC 
https://lnkd.in/eNfBiJvH
Barclays 
https://lnkd.in/eRT4dsFY.
NatWest 
https://lnkd.in/euftbUw6
Citi 
https://lnkd.in/eXwA-Y4X
UBS 
https://lnkd.in/exudCU6V
Credit Suisse 
https://lnkd.in/e4CEK5NZ
BNP Paribas 
https://lnkd.in/ec4hWEdm
Deutsche Bank 
https://lnkd.in/eAWCSV_7
ING 
https://lnkd.in/eNpdmVH8
Apollo Global Management, Inc. 
https://lnkd.in/ewwq_62M
Wells Fargo 
https://lnkd.in/euMkQnKE
BNY Mellon 
https://lnkd.in/ezMfVgND

 

 

JPM sum up the general samey narrative well with their Trends to watch

 

“An end to rate hikes as inflation peaks

As inflation peaks and eventually starts to decline,

central banks will stop hiking rates in Q1/Q2 2023.

However, we do not expect rate cuts in 2023

because inflation will remain above central bank

targets.

 

Growth set to stay low

Global growth is decelerating, and with monetary

policy reaching restrictive territory, we believe that it

will generally stay weak in 202

 

Fiscal challenges ahead

Public support measures to combat the cost-of-living

crisis and increasing defense spending mean budget

deficits will stay high. As borrowing costs remain

elevated, governments are likely to increase taxes to

finance spending.

 

Globalization dialed back

As the world becomes more multipolar with the

emergence of various political spheres of influence,

we expect global trade as a share of GDP to decline

and strategic sectors to be repatriated.

 

The fixed income renaissance

As bond yields reset at higher levels, inflation peaks,

and central banks stop rate hikes, fixed income

returns look more attractive. Emerging market hard

currency sovereign bonds, US government bonds,

investment grade corporate bonds and selected yield

curve steepening strategies look particularly interesting.

 

Equity markets remain volatile

Contraction of equity markets’ valuation is well

advanced, though challenged corporate profitability

from the weak economic backdrop and margin

pressure should still lead to headwinds and volatility

going into 2023. We prefer defensive sectors,

regions and strategies with stable earnings, low

leverage and pricing power, such as Swiss equities,

healthcare and quality stocks. Defensive Super-trends

such as Silver economy, Infrastructure and

Climate change should also prove less volatile.

 

USD seen staying strong

The USD should be supported by its interest rate

advantage for most of 2023. As a result, we expect

the USD to stay strong, particularly versus emerging

market currencies such as the CNY. However, some

developed market currencies such as the JPY are

now undervalued and could stage a turnaround and

appreciate at some point.

 

A good year for most alternative investments

Hedge funds should deliver above-average returns,

and 2023 is also likely to be a good vintage year for

private equity. Secondaries and private debt should

do well. In real estate, we prefer listed over direct

solutions.

 

Multi-asset diversification returns

As bond yields have reset at higher levels, fixed

income as an asset class has gained relative

attractiveness compared to equities. Diversification

benefits should return as central banks stop hiking

rates. 

Friday 30 September 2022

the International Monetary Fund said it was concerned about the UK government adding £45bn of tax cuts to £150bn of spending. With almost £200bn added to the UK’s debt pile over the next four years under this plan

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/sep/28/what-bank-of-england-doing-pound-dollar-uk-economy-interest-rates-bonds

Wednesday 26 February 2020

The American dream of Humanity, empathy and capitalism with a conscience is alive and well, but alive and well in Canada
 “from:@profgalloway #hottake” on Twitter. 
WeWTF

worth a listen The missing Cryptoqueen
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p07nkd84

Monday 10 February 2020

How McKinsey Destroyed the Middle Class
Technocratic management, no matter how brilliant, cannot unwind structural inequalities.

50 Cognitive Biases in the Modern World

Thursday 9 January 2020

best of MIB

https://ritholtz.com/2020/01/mib-best-of-2019/

Tuesday 29 October 2019

really

We’ll you’ve got a quirky sense of ironic detachment, or you’re just commenting on what’s going on. Or perhaps you’re not going to make a joke , but signal that a joke is being made without actually making one

Adam and Louis