People who are made anxious by ambiguity and novelty wind up being political conservatives,
Sheepy though process - if the future is different –it is kind of disgusting – if it’s disgusting it’s wrong wrong wrong ..and that’s it
https://open.spotify.com/episode/4uzO5YJ0k7HeELtjm9ZAdq?si=9f72e802e0644826
52 Snippets from 2023
https://snippet.finance/52-snippets-from-2023/
Oyster cards as digital money
The rise of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) sparks concerns about increased state surveillance over spending habits. While fears of government monitoring prompt debates and resistance from some quarters like Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida, analyzing London's transport payment systems, particularly the Oyster cards, sheds light on the dynamics between convenience and privacy in electronic payment systems. CBDCs, being a potential replacement for physical cash, raise the question of how much individuals prioritize privacy in their transactions.
Electronic payment systems inherently create transaction trails, raising concerns about state intrusion and control. The debate around CBDCs revolves around balancing the state's access to transactional data and individual privacy rights. While some argue that such fears are overstated, given existing surveillance methods like bank account monitoring and CCTV access, the fundamental question remains: do people truly prioritize privacy over convenience in their transactions? Surveys and public consultations attempt to gauge public sentiment on privacy in electronic payments, but these methods may not fully capture real-world behavior.
London's Transport for London (TfL) inadvertently presents a revealing case study on privacy preferences in payment systems. Different payment methods, from paper tickets to contactless cards, offer varying degrees of privacy. Unregistered Oyster cards provide near-anonymous transactions, while contactless cards hold minimal to significant user information. Despite privacy differences, data analysis reveals a clear trend favoring convenience over privacy. The usage of contactless debit and credit cards for travel has surged, while the use of pay-as-you-go Oyster cards has declined significantly.
This shift indicates that most individuals prioritize the convenience of direct debit or credit card payments over the additional privacy offered by unregistered Oyster cards. The trend showcases the dominance of convenience in driving payment choices. Moreover, the inconvenience of topping up Oyster cards compared to direct bank account payments plays a significant role in adoption preferences. This preference for convenience raises doubts about the potential adoption of CBDCs, as their perceived inconvenience might hinder widespread acceptance, outweighing concerns about privacy invasion. Central banks considering CBDC implementation should heed the pivotal role of convenience in shaping consumer behavior and adoption trends.
https://www.ft.com/content/651cc7a4-27e3-4026-9381-76421a0203bb
‘In principle, you do not really need more than two: a global equity fund and a broad bond fund in your own currency, with the relative amounts a function of your return needs, ability to withstand short-term drawdowns, and need to control long-term risk on your ultimate portfolio. This gives you very good diversification, clarity and simplicity on what you are holding, and high liquidity with minimum costs if held through passive funds, mutual or exchange traded (ETFs).’
‘investors often overvalue liquidity’
Goldman Sachs https://lnkd.in/eKzF_2K4
J.P. Morgan https://lnkd.in/eHb6-622
Morgan Stanley https://lnkd.in/e2nAMjmM
Bank of America https://lnkd.in/e8XFD8TW
BlackRock https://lnkd.in/eYxCBRGj
HSBC https://lnkd.in/eNfBiJvH
Barclays https://lnkd.in/eRT4dsFY.
NatWest https://lnkd.in/euftbUw6
Citi https://lnkd.in/eXwA-Y4X
UBS https://lnkd.in/exudCU6V
Credit Suisse https://lnkd.in/e4CEK5NZ
BNP Paribas https://lnkd.in/ec4hWEdm
Deutsche Bank https://lnkd.in/eAWCSV_7
ING https://lnkd.in/eNpdmVH8
Apollo Global Management, Inc. https://lnkd.in/ewwq_62M
Wells Fargo https://lnkd.in/euMkQnKE
BNY Mellon https://lnkd.in/ezMfVgND
JPM sum up the general samey narrative well with their Trends to watch
“An end to rate hikes as inflation peaks
As inflation peaks and eventually starts to decline,
central banks will stop hiking rates in Q1/Q2 2023.
However, we do not expect rate cuts in 2023
because inflation will remain above central bank
targets.
Growth set to stay low
Global growth is decelerating, and with monetary
policy reaching restrictive territory, we believe that it
will generally stay weak in 202
Fiscal challenges ahead
Public support measures to combat the cost-of-living
crisis and increasing defense spending mean budget
deficits will stay high. As borrowing costs remain
elevated, governments are likely to increase taxes to
finance spending.
Globalization dialed back
As the world becomes more multipolar with the
emergence of various political spheres of influence,
we expect global trade as a share of GDP to decline
and strategic sectors to be repatriated.
The fixed income renaissance
As bond yields reset at higher levels, inflation peaks,
and central banks stop rate hikes, fixed income
returns look more attractive. Emerging market hard
currency sovereign bonds, US government bonds,
investment grade corporate bonds and selected yield
curve steepening strategies look particularly interesting.
Equity markets remain volatile
Contraction of equity markets’ valuation is well
advanced, though challenged corporate profitability
from the weak economic backdrop and margin
pressure should still lead to headwinds and volatility
going into 2023. We prefer defensive sectors,
regions and strategies with stable earnings, low
leverage and pricing power, such as Swiss equities,
healthcare and quality stocks. Defensive Super-trends
such as Silver economy, Infrastructure and
Climate change should also prove less volatile.
USD seen staying strong
The USD should be supported by its interest rate
advantage for most of 2023. As a result, we expect
the USD to stay strong, particularly versus emerging
market currencies such as the CNY. However, some
developed market currencies such as the JPY are
now undervalued and could stage a turnaround and
appreciate at some point.
A good year for most alternative investments
Hedge funds should deliver above-average returns,
and 2023 is also likely to be a good vintage year for
private equity. Secondaries and private debt should
do well. In real estate, we prefer listed over direct
solutions.
Multi-asset diversification returns
As bond yields have reset at higher levels, fixed
income as an asset class has gained relative
attractiveness compared to equities. Diversification
benefits should return as central banks stop hiking
rates.
